Throne of Eldraine Standard! Preliminary thoughts
5 Questions, 5 Predictions, 8 Decklists
Ahhh, my favourite time of the magic season! New standard starts in 5 days on Arena!
Breaking down formats is what I enjoy most of the game, so and let's dive right into my initial thoughts on the format and how I plan to get an edge in the early upcoming standard season.
First off, initially it's important not to spend too much time hammering out a perfect decklist before you play. Too many surprises and too many shifts will happen.
What's important at first is to learn as much as you can about a format.
What are the most powerful interactions? What are the best stand alone cards in the format?
What restrictions does the mana put on deckbuilding? What are the fastest decks in the format?
If you are trying to win in the first couple weeks , being proactive is generally the right strategy. In a week 1 tournament, don't get caught in the middle of this format. Either go over the top (with an anti-agro sideboard) or go under it. But right now , until the first tournament it's all about calculated exploration!
Questions
#1 What does the fastest deck look like?
Before I look at the middle of the format, I always try to look at the top and bottom of the format and assess how good those cards are.
With the card pool being so small, and no obvious infect type combo available, you can look at the 1 drop pool available to get a sense of where aggressive decks might go from here.
Aggressive decks ONLY have 1 set of dual lands that are complimentary to them, so it is almost certain the fastest deck will be a mono colored deck.
If the "go big" decks of the format are slow enough, a deck primarily based around great 2 drops may have what it takes to go under the format. Especially if the fastest agro decks happen to be glass cannon in nature and fold to specific hate cards.
Based on the cards I've seen, the fast decks I would look to explore in order are
mono R, mono B, Knights, BR, WR, mono W and Gr stompy
#2 What decks have inevitability ?
Last season we had a hierarchy of go big decks that looked something like this:
Elementals < Mass manipulation < Field of the dead < scapeshift < kethis combo = nexus of fate
Scapeshift is gone, Kethis combo is dead, Nexus of fate is gone.. But the elemental value lords at the top of the format are still left.
Elementals + field of the dead were the kings of value. There was no way to out grind risen reef in non green colors, this was exasperated by Veil of summer. The only way they could be beaten was to be combo-ed over or destroyed through raw aggression.. generally combined with evasion.
Is there any decks created by Throne of Eldraine that can go over the top of this?
#3 Have any new infinite combos been printed?
I would keep my eyes and ears peeled for various infinite combos. As is, it doesn't look like Eldraine has any... but this is not my field of expertise.
These combos are always good to keep in the back of your mind, because combo decks can become the best decks of the format if someone finds how to make them competitive before the hate cards come out. Kethis combo at the end of last season was a good example of that.
#4 What is the top 3-5 removal spells for each color?
Removal tends to be the biggest warping factor of a format. An efficient ubiquitous removal spell dictates what threats can and cannot be played. If you notice a pattern of what types of permanents struggle to be removed, you might discover a threat that over-performs how it would in other formats before other people do.
#5 How good is Gilded Goose?
1 mana accelerents (Llanowar elfs) were critical to green strategies that aren't focused around ETB tapped lands. It looks like we have a semi-replacement in gilded goose, with a very relevant drawback that it cannot make mana every turn. How big of a deal is this in standard?
PREDICTIONS
#1 Mono Red Cavalcade is the fastest agro deck , Torbran + Frenzy is the initial curve topper of choice
With so much lifegain in the format across various colors, mono red will need to focus on doing huge chunks of damage, not nickle and dime with burn spells. Control decks with sweepers won't be easy to build with how bad of a matchup they have against elementals. Cavalcade of Calamity and Torbran Thane of the Red Fell are poised to do absurd amounts of damage together, and quickly.
Cavalcade red will do extremely well in the first SCG tournament , but the format will adjust to it and expose how vulnerable it is to hate.
#2 Elementals/Field of the dead will warp the top of the format
Throne of eldraine will not change the paradigm for these decks. They will run over any new midrange/control deck that tries to beat them. An arms race will happen to see who can do more silly things with these cards. However, they can and will be beaten by the best agressive decks. The only deck that can contend with field of the dead for a spot on top of the format is a deck that utilizes wilderness reclamation.
If you can figure a way to go way over the top of these decks while still beating midrange decks soundly, you've broken the format.
#3 Mono Black agro-midrange will be a very strong deck. Either tier 1 or tier 1.5. It will not feature dread presence.
The tools mono black has gotten from the new set are staggering. Early after m20 got printed, I took both mono black agro and control to a very high mythic ranking, and all the holes in the strategy have gotten filled.
Murderous rider is incredible, as is the new land castle locthwain, as is ayra.
Cavalcade of night in conjunction with all these great new creatures/lands will be extremely hard for any non-elemental deck to outgrind , black has best removal by far in the format AND they can put a fast clock with 1 drops -> spawn of mayham.
#4 A midrange or a control deck will emerge that beats the agressive decks, but loses to elementals. Mono Black or Blue Black control will be that deck.. maybe WB control.
The best anti-agro cards in the format are cry of the carnarium, legion's end, oath of kaya, kaya's wrath, cavalier of night, enter-the god eternals and lovestruck beast.
If esper is viable, it's BW based with a light splash for blue.
#5 Green "Food" Decks can occupy the midrange space, but they will be soundly trounced by elementals and serve as a limited metagame call at best. Gilded Goose will be a dud... for now.
Unless other cards can make food, gilded goose is way too unreliable for a format who's turns typically goes 7+. You will want to activate the goose multiple turns. Only using it once is too big of a liability...
This is true UNLESS, it's ability to make any color of mana is utilized. With the current card pool, 4-5 color decks based on green aren't strong enough to be worth a sketchy mana base.
In a 2-3 color deck that plays Oko + Wicked wolf, Gilded goose is likely good enough (the ability to make multiple food is big), but that style of deck doesn't go big enough for the current format. Food decks may be able to compete for the midrange space, but that will be a meta choice at best.
If food midrange decks can be made to beat agro decks and black decks (not impossible), they could end up being great... but I predict that won't happen consistently throughout the formats life.
Decklists
Note: these are intentionally rough and expect them to change very quickly with a few reps in the new format. They are mostly to be used as my starting point on day 1-3 and get a sense of which cards I like.
Mono Black Agro-midrange
Creatures:
4 Gutterbones
4 Knight of the Ebon Legion
4 Yarok's Fenlurker
4 Order of Midnight
2 Midnight reaper
3 Ayara, First of Lochwain
4 Spawn of mayham
4 Midnight Rider
2 Rankle, Master of Pranks
2 Cavalier of Night
Spells:
3 Legion's end
Lands:
21 Swamp
3 Castle lochtwain
My pick for the probable best deck of decks I brewed up to start. It's so similar to successful deck I had before but much better. Interested to see if I end up missing Dread prescence. Thought it underperformed in the more agressive slanted decks before, but could be wrong.
Mono R Cavalcade
Creatures:
3 Grim Initiate
4 Scorch Spitter
4 Tinstreet dodger
4 Runaway steamkin
4 Chandra's Spitefire
1 Bonecrusher Giant
2 Experimental Frenzy
2 Torbrenn, Thrann of Red Fell
4 Shock
1 Slaying Fire
1 Skewer the critics
4 Light up the stage
4 Cavalcade of Calamity
2 Chandra, Acolyte of Flame
17 mountain
3 castle embereth
Want to try torbrenn in this strategy.
Gr stompy agro
Creatures:
2 Gingerbrute
4 Pelt Collector
1 Syr Faren, The hedgehammer
4 Wildborn Perserver
2 Paradise Druid
4 Lovestruck beast
4 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Gruul Spellbreaker
4 Questing Beast
Spells:
2 Vivien, Arkbow Ranger
2 Collision/Collosis
1 Domri's Ambush
2 Embercleave
3 Once upon a time
Lands:
4 Stomping grounds
2 Fabled passage
11 Forest
4 Mountain
Lots of value with the adventure cards. Want to see if Embercleave + high powered creatures turns out to be very good? Lots of high power creatures in the deck that can utilize trample. Has a minor combo element to the deck. Seems like a natural agressive home for questing beast.
Worried about lovestruck beast being turned off too much, but seems like it has too much synergy in the deck to not try out.
UWb Artifacts
Creautres:
4 Stonecoil Serpent
2 Chamber Sentry
4 Vantress Gargoyle
3 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
2 Alela, Artful Provocateur
1 Arcanist's Owl
2 Shimmer Dragon
Artifacts:
4 Glass Casket
2 Prison Realm2 Golden Egg
1 Spinning Wheel
2 Wishing Well
Spells:
2 Enter the God-Eternals
4 Teferi, Time reveler
Lands:
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Watery Grave4 Temple of Silence
2 Godless Shrine
7 Island
4 Plains
Interested in exploring the artifact space of the format. Shimmer dragon seems absurd with enough artifacts..Tons of artifacts to trigger Emry and alela. Enter the god eternals great synergy in self milling to enable Emry and milling opponent to turn on vantress gargoyle.
Teferi time reveler is great in deck because deck is mostly permanants that gain value.
Black splash for alela/enter the god eternals is likely worth it, but will see.
Has potential. How good is Vantress Gargoyle??
Green 4c super friends
4 Gilded Goose
4 Paradise Druid
4 Incubation Druid
4 Hydroid Krasis
3 Wicked Wolf
2 Voracious Hydra
2 Stonecoil serpent
4 Oko, Thief of Crowns
3 Nissa, who Shakes the world
3 Garruk, Cursed Huntsman
2 Vraska, Golgari Queen
2 Ajani, The greathearted
7 Forest
1 Temple of Mystery
2 Temple Garden
4 Breeding Pool
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Interplanar beacon
1 Castle Garembig
Pushing the limits of multicolor in the format without playing taplands.
Want to see how good Garruk is with cards that can help it ultimate.
Oko + Vraska have good synergy in saccing food, Ajani + Garruk can ultimate right away, Vraska can help garruk ultimate by saccing wolves.
Wondered if I can leverage enough green sources to make castle garembig worth it? Lots of X spells to take advantage of that card, and Nissa to leverage the X spells.
Probably a bad deck, but can't be THAT bad with all those mythics. The mana base limits sideboard options tho.
GW Adventure time
Creatures:
4 Edgewall Innkeeper
4 Giant Killer
4 Faerie Guide Mother
2 Emara, Soul of the Accord
4 Shepard of the flock
4 Lovestruck Beast
4 Venerated Loxodon
2 Trostani Discordant
1 Harmonious Archon
Spells
3 Conclave Tribunal
3 March of the Multitudes
1 Flower//Flourish
4 Once upon a time
Lands:
4 Temple Garden
7 Plains
1 Castle Ardenvale
8 Forest
Excited about this deck. Lots of great cheap adventure cards in GW can start to chain off with edgewall inkeeper. Once upon a time increases redundancy to combo off. GW is good at using random bodies with anthem effects. Mixed with at token shell so the anemic bodies becomes less anemic.
GU The Great Henge
Creatures:
4 Merfolk Secretkeeper
4 Gingerbrute
2 Brazen Borrower
4 Wildborn Preserver
4 Stonecoil Serpent
4 Vantress Gargoyle
2 Lovestruck beast
1 Questing Beast
3 Emry, Lurker of the loch
Artifacts:
3 The Great Henge
Spells:
4 Once upon a time
2 Tamiyo, collector of tales
2 Return of the wildspeaker
4 Breeding Pool
4 Temple of Mystery
8 Islands
5 Forest
An attempt to answer "How good is The great henge when pushed to it's maximum?" This deck finds great henge easily with self mill + emry + tamiyo. Lots of ways to enable it by turn 4. Lacks evasion and lacks removal, so trying out an over-run effect in return of the wild speaker. Deck isn't lightning fast and struggles against lots of removal , so, unlikely to be good.
Bant Blink Food
4 Gilded Goose
4 Paradise Druid
2 Giant Killer
4 Charming Prince
2 Knight of Autumn
3 Wicked Wolf
3 Questing beast
2 Tolsimir, Friend to Wolves
1 Oketra
1 Harmonius Archon
1 Agent of Treachery
4 Oko, Thief of Crowns
3 Teferi, Time reveler
4 Once upon a time
An attempt to answer "how good is charming prince in standard?" Multiple good blink targets to set up.Likely suffers from having too many decks that go over the top of it, but looks fun to play and great against agro! Once upon a time seems particularly good, as it helps enable fast starts, fixes mana and digs to heavy hitters in the late game.
Ahhh, my favourite time of the magic season! New standard starts in 5 days on Arena!
Breaking down formats is what I enjoy most of the game, so and let's dive right into my initial thoughts on the format and how I plan to get an edge in the early upcoming standard season.
First off, initially it's important not to spend too much time hammering out a perfect decklist before you play. Too many surprises and too many shifts will happen.
What's important at first is to learn as much as you can about a format.
What are the most powerful interactions? What are the best stand alone cards in the format?
What restrictions does the mana put on deckbuilding? What are the fastest decks in the format?
If you are trying to win in the first couple weeks , being proactive is generally the right strategy. In a week 1 tournament, don't get caught in the middle of this format. Either go over the top (with an anti-agro sideboard) or go under it. But right now , until the first tournament it's all about calculated exploration!
Questions
#1 What does the fastest deck look like?
Before I look at the middle of the format, I always try to look at the top and bottom of the format and assess how good those cards are.
With the card pool being so small, and no obvious infect type combo available, you can look at the 1 drop pool available to get a sense of where aggressive decks might go from here.
Aggressive decks ONLY have 1 set of dual lands that are complimentary to them, so it is almost certain the fastest deck will be a mono colored deck.
If the "go big" decks of the format are slow enough, a deck primarily based around great 2 drops may have what it takes to go under the format. Especially if the fastest agro decks happen to be glass cannon in nature and fold to specific hate cards.
Based on the cards I've seen, the fast decks I would look to explore in order are
mono R, mono B, Knights, BR, WR, mono W and Gr stompy
#2 What decks have inevitability ?
Last season we had a hierarchy of go big decks that looked something like this:
Elementals < Mass manipulation < Field of the dead < scapeshift < kethis combo = nexus of fate
Scapeshift is gone, Kethis combo is dead, Nexus of fate is gone.. But the elemental value lords at the top of the format are still left.
Elementals + field of the dead were the kings of value. There was no way to out grind risen reef in non green colors, this was exasperated by Veil of summer. The only way they could be beaten was to be combo-ed over or destroyed through raw aggression.. generally combined with evasion.
Is there any decks created by Throne of Eldraine that can go over the top of this?
#3 Have any new infinite combos been printed?
I would keep my eyes and ears peeled for various infinite combos. As is, it doesn't look like Eldraine has any... but this is not my field of expertise.
These combos are always good to keep in the back of your mind, because combo decks can become the best decks of the format if someone finds how to make them competitive before the hate cards come out. Kethis combo at the end of last season was a good example of that.
#4 What is the top 3-5 removal spells for each color?
Removal tends to be the biggest warping factor of a format. An efficient ubiquitous removal spell dictates what threats can and cannot be played. If you notice a pattern of what types of permanents struggle to be removed, you might discover a threat that over-performs how it would in other formats before other people do.
#5 How good is Gilded Goose?
1 mana accelerents (Llanowar elfs) were critical to green strategies that aren't focused around ETB tapped lands. It looks like we have a semi-replacement in gilded goose, with a very relevant drawback that it cannot make mana every turn. How big of a deal is this in standard?
PREDICTIONS
#1 Mono Red Cavalcade is the fastest agro deck , Torbran + Frenzy is the initial curve topper of choice
With so much lifegain in the format across various colors, mono red will need to focus on doing huge chunks of damage, not nickle and dime with burn spells. Control decks with sweepers won't be easy to build with how bad of a matchup they have against elementals. Cavalcade of Calamity and Torbran Thane of the Red Fell are poised to do absurd amounts of damage together, and quickly.
Cavalcade red will do extremely well in the first SCG tournament , but the format will adjust to it and expose how vulnerable it is to hate.
#2 Elementals/Field of the dead will warp the top of the format
Throne of eldraine will not change the paradigm for these decks. They will run over any new midrange/control deck that tries to beat them. An arms race will happen to see who can do more silly things with these cards. However, they can and will be beaten by the best agressive decks. The only deck that can contend with field of the dead for a spot on top of the format is a deck that utilizes wilderness reclamation.
If you can figure a way to go way over the top of these decks while still beating midrange decks soundly, you've broken the format.
#3 Mono Black agro-midrange will be a very strong deck. Either tier 1 or tier 1.5. It will not feature dread presence.
The tools mono black has gotten from the new set are staggering. Early after m20 got printed, I took both mono black agro and control to a very high mythic ranking, and all the holes in the strategy have gotten filled.
Murderous rider is incredible, as is the new land castle locthwain, as is ayra.
Cavalcade of night in conjunction with all these great new creatures/lands will be extremely hard for any non-elemental deck to outgrind , black has best removal by far in the format AND they can put a fast clock with 1 drops -> spawn of mayham.
#4 A midrange or a control deck will emerge that beats the agressive decks, but loses to elementals. Mono Black or Blue Black control will be that deck.. maybe WB control.
The best anti-agro cards in the format are cry of the carnarium, legion's end, oath of kaya, kaya's wrath, cavalier of night, enter-the god eternals and lovestruck beast.
If esper is viable, it's BW based with a light splash for blue.
#5 Green "Food" Decks can occupy the midrange space, but they will be soundly trounced by elementals and serve as a limited metagame call at best. Gilded Goose will be a dud... for now.
Unless other cards can make food, gilded goose is way too unreliable for a format who's turns typically goes 7+. You will want to activate the goose multiple turns. Only using it once is too big of a liability...
This is true UNLESS, it's ability to make any color of mana is utilized. With the current card pool, 4-5 color decks based on green aren't strong enough to be worth a sketchy mana base.
In a 2-3 color deck that plays Oko + Wicked wolf, Gilded goose is likely good enough (the ability to make multiple food is big), but that style of deck doesn't go big enough for the current format. Food decks may be able to compete for the midrange space, but that will be a meta choice at best.
If food midrange decks can be made to beat agro decks and black decks (not impossible), they could end up being great... but I predict that won't happen consistently throughout the formats life.
Decklists
Note: these are intentionally rough and expect them to change very quickly with a few reps in the new format. They are mostly to be used as my starting point on day 1-3 and get a sense of which cards I like.
Mono Black Agro-midrange
Creatures:
4 Gutterbones
4 Knight of the Ebon Legion
4 Yarok's Fenlurker
4 Order of Midnight
2 Midnight reaper
3 Ayara, First of Lochwain
4 Spawn of mayham
4 Midnight Rider
2 Rankle, Master of Pranks
2 Cavalier of Night
Spells:
3 Legion's end
Lands:
21 Swamp
3 Castle lochtwain
My pick for the probable best deck of decks I brewed up to start. It's so similar to successful deck I had before but much better. Interested to see if I end up missing Dread prescence. Thought it underperformed in the more agressive slanted decks before, but could be wrong.
Mono R Cavalcade
Creatures:
3 Grim Initiate
4 Scorch Spitter
4 Tinstreet dodger
4 Runaway steamkin
4 Chandra's Spitefire
1 Bonecrusher Giant
2 Experimental Frenzy
2 Torbrenn, Thrann of Red Fell
4 Shock
1 Slaying Fire
1 Skewer the critics
4 Light up the stage
4 Cavalcade of Calamity
2 Chandra, Acolyte of Flame
17 mountain
3 castle embereth
Want to try torbrenn in this strategy.
Gr stompy agro
Creatures:
2 Gingerbrute
4 Pelt Collector
1 Syr Faren, The hedgehammer
4 Wildborn Perserver
2 Paradise Druid
4 Lovestruck beast
4 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Gruul Spellbreaker
4 Questing Beast
Spells:
2 Vivien, Arkbow Ranger
2 Collision/Collosis
1 Domri's Ambush
2 Embercleave
3 Once upon a time
Lands:
4 Stomping grounds
2 Fabled passage
11 Forest
4 Mountain
Lots of value with the adventure cards. Want to see if Embercleave + high powered creatures turns out to be very good? Lots of high power creatures in the deck that can utilize trample. Has a minor combo element to the deck. Seems like a natural agressive home for questing beast.
Worried about lovestruck beast being turned off too much, but seems like it has too much synergy in the deck to not try out.
UWb Artifacts
Creautres:
4 Stonecoil Serpent
2 Chamber Sentry
4 Vantress Gargoyle
3 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
2 Alela, Artful Provocateur
1 Arcanist's Owl
2 Shimmer Dragon
Artifacts:
4 Glass Casket
2 Prison Realm2 Golden Egg
1 Spinning Wheel
2 Wishing Well
Spells:
2 Enter the God-Eternals
4 Teferi, Time reveler
Lands:
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Watery Grave4 Temple of Silence
2 Godless Shrine
7 Island
4 Plains
Interested in exploring the artifact space of the format. Shimmer dragon seems absurd with enough artifacts..Tons of artifacts to trigger Emry and alela. Enter the god eternals great synergy in self milling to enable Emry and milling opponent to turn on vantress gargoyle.
Teferi time reveler is great in deck because deck is mostly permanants that gain value.
Black splash for alela/enter the god eternals is likely worth it, but will see.
Has potential. How good is Vantress Gargoyle??
Green 4c super friends
4 Gilded Goose
4 Paradise Druid
4 Incubation Druid
4 Hydroid Krasis
3 Wicked Wolf
2 Voracious Hydra
2 Stonecoil serpent
4 Oko, Thief of Crowns
3 Nissa, who Shakes the world
3 Garruk, Cursed Huntsman
2 Vraska, Golgari Queen
2 Ajani, The greathearted
7 Forest
1 Temple of Mystery
2 Temple Garden
4 Breeding Pool
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Interplanar beacon
1 Castle Garembig
Pushing the limits of multicolor in the format without playing taplands.
Want to see how good Garruk is with cards that can help it ultimate.
Oko + Vraska have good synergy in saccing food, Ajani + Garruk can ultimate right away, Vraska can help garruk ultimate by saccing wolves.
Wondered if I can leverage enough green sources to make castle garembig worth it? Lots of X spells to take advantage of that card, and Nissa to leverage the X spells.
Probably a bad deck, but can't be THAT bad with all those mythics. The mana base limits sideboard options tho.
GW Adventure time
Creatures:
4 Edgewall Innkeeper
4 Giant Killer
4 Faerie Guide Mother
2 Emara, Soul of the Accord
4 Shepard of the flock
4 Lovestruck Beast
4 Venerated Loxodon
2 Trostani Discordant
1 Harmonious Archon
Spells
3 Conclave Tribunal
3 March of the Multitudes
1 Flower//Flourish
4 Once upon a time
Lands:
4 Temple Garden
7 Plains
1 Castle Ardenvale
8 Forest
Excited about this deck. Lots of great cheap adventure cards in GW can start to chain off with edgewall inkeeper. Once upon a time increases redundancy to combo off. GW is good at using random bodies with anthem effects. Mixed with at token shell so the anemic bodies becomes less anemic.
GU The Great Henge
Creatures:
4 Merfolk Secretkeeper
4 Gingerbrute
2 Brazen Borrower
4 Wildborn Preserver
4 Stonecoil Serpent
4 Vantress Gargoyle
2 Lovestruck beast
1 Questing Beast
3 Emry, Lurker of the loch
Artifacts:
3 The Great Henge
Spells:
4 Once upon a time
2 Tamiyo, collector of tales
2 Return of the wildspeaker
4 Breeding Pool
4 Temple of Mystery
8 Islands
5 Forest
An attempt to answer "How good is The great henge when pushed to it's maximum?" This deck finds great henge easily with self mill + emry + tamiyo. Lots of ways to enable it by turn 4. Lacks evasion and lacks removal, so trying out an over-run effect in return of the wild speaker. Deck isn't lightning fast and struggles against lots of removal , so, unlikely to be good.
Bant Blink Food
4 Gilded Goose
4 Paradise Druid
2 Giant Killer
4 Charming Prince
2 Knight of Autumn
3 Wicked Wolf
3 Questing beast
2 Tolsimir, Friend to Wolves
1 Oketra
1 Harmonius Archon
1 Agent of Treachery
4 Oko, Thief of Crowns
3 Teferi, Time reveler
4 Once upon a time
An attempt to answer "how good is charming prince in standard?" Multiple good blink targets to set up.Likely suffers from having too many decks that go over the top of it, but looks fun to play and great against agro! Once upon a time seems particularly good, as it helps enable fast starts, fixes mana and digs to heavy hitters in the late game.
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