THB Standard Week 1: Testing Impressions

Introduction

Whew, been a solid week of play testing and familiarizing myself with the new standard. It's been fun!
First of all, wanted to give kudos to WOTC development for this set. Very deep, tons of options, lots of build arounds.. the cards are playing out as interesting as I expected from the spoiler.. Nothing is standing out as Oko egregious.

The meta is still totally up in the air... However, a loose rock paper scissors dynamic has started to emerge.

The three basic types of decks are

1) Synergistic agro decks looking to punish the ramp decks and their lack of interactions... Most mono color strategies fall under this category as well as GW enchantments or RB sac. They often play bad cards that work well with each other, or help break another excellent card.

2) Disruption decks, looking to prey on small creatures and decks looking to assemble a combination of particular cards to win. This is mostly dominated by various Esper, UB and Doom Foretold decks.

3) Growth spiral decks, looking to punish the disruption decks with assembling a ton of lands quickly and playing absurd value threats like Hydroid krasis, Nissa , Risen reef and Uro. Some utilize Thassa to blink cards like Risen reef and Agent of Treachery.

The options within these style of decks are numerous. Even within a particular archetype there are so many viable ways to build them and a lot of effective sideboard cards.

Noteable absences have been the two heavyweights from last season, Jeskai Fires and Jund Oven.
Both decks didn't gain much from the new set and took a big hit with some powerful cards against them. It's possible someone figures out a new way to build them, but it's clear to me, the old way isn't cutting it.

This article discusses my early findings after playing standard for a week and a reflection on some of my ideas before I had played with the set.

https://b3rgmtg.blogspot.com/2020/01/thb-standard-pre-release-10-key-cards.html

Reflection on Predictions

#1- Mono Red Agro is super unplayable

Verdict: Wrong

The key card I underestimated was Anax.


It is surprisingly easy to get Anax's power high, which works extremely well with Embercleave. The death protection is very nice against the Esper decks and ensures you have enough bodies for Torbrann or Embercleave. Mono R now has the critical density of high powered cards to become a consistent Embercleave deck. It also gained a nice sideboard tool in The Akroan War. I was correct that burn is not viable, but failed to realize that mono R can become a good Embercleave combo deck.

#2- UG ramp will be the most popular deck in early weeks

Verdict: Too early, but I was probably wrong.

I underestimated the popularity and quality of Esper. Mono Black is probably the most popular deck on the ladder, but I think the deck is bad or at least versions I've seen are.. such that it wont retain its popularity. Esper on the other likely will maintain its popularity... With UG being second place. Close enough.


#4- Esper (or UW) control is BACK.

Verdict: Correct

Oh wow was I correct! It's  more popular than I imagined and got so many new tools!
I correctly foresaw Ashiok and Atris as game changers, but Dream Trawler got me by surprise.



 The card is easily a top 10 card in the set. It's an incredible game ending bomb against agressive and midrange decks... An engine, a kill condition, a board stabilizer and it's extremely resilient!
If I redid the last article on format warping cards, this one would be on there for sure.

#5- Theros Beyond Death is one of the deepest magic sets for standard in the history of the game.

Verdict: Correct

The sheer diversity of cards seeing play is impressive!


#7- Esper Hero won't be tier 1
Verdict: Too early to tell, but regardless, I underestimated a tapout tempo based version of esper.

At first I saw a LOT of esper hero, but it seems that the decks are trending to cut the hero and play a  more controlling version, which is what I expected. However, the power of Dream Trawler, Ashiok and Atris  give the deck a better late game than I initially expected. All of these cards have a proactive element that work well with Hero... I now think there can exist a meta where Hero of Precinct one should be main deck. But overall, I still think Hero will not be needed. Sweepers are too good against the devotion decks and bigger spells close the game fast.


Brew Analysis
Deck #1 - Temur Reclamation

PLEASE someone who can stand playing wilderness reclamation and Expansion//Explosion on arena test this deck out!? The deck performed pretty great in the 6-7 games I played with it... but I couldn't stand the mechanics of it, so I put it down. I was playing it against the day 1-2 brews, so it's possible that now the meta is more tuned it will be worse... but I believe it has legs.
Underworld breach was awesome in conjunction with thirst for meaning!
Underworld breach is definitely standard playable in the right shell.

This is where I ended up https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2696516#paper.

Performance: B+
Sample: 6-7 matches


Deck #2 Green White Enchantments

Updated (Bant)
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2696539#paper

This is currently the deck that I am currently working on, though I still haven't played too many games with it. I've come to the conclusion (75%) that splashing blue for staggering insight IS the correct way to go. Assembling a battle cruiser is slower than you like , so it's very possible to get overwhelmed by aggressive decks who are going wider than you fast... or it's possible to get burned out via gray merchants.  Giving your medium/large creature life link is crucial to surviving in those games.... The card draw value of Staggering Insight is secondary to the lifelink in this deck.

The sideboard is still a work in progress..

Note: Karametra's blessing is horribly over-rated. Teferi makes the card very awkward against Esper, and against heavy black decks you have awsome sideboard cards. You dont have to protect your creatures at all costs, as there is so much card draw. Against heavy removal decks, the spell doesn't protect you until you are suited up... which is harder to do against those decks than most.
For now, I'm happy with 0 in the 75...I could see 1-2 in the sideboard.

Apostle of Purifying Light is busted in this deck vs mono B and probably should find room for a 3 of. It's also great against Esper if they aren't running a ton of wraths.

I'm going to repeat this over and over, but Questing Beast is extremely well positioned right now and has been an MVP for me for all GW decks I've played (a lot).
Teferi can be extremely annoying for the deck to deal with otherwise.. I love it in the sideboard vs any deck running Teferi.

Performance: A
Sample: 10 matches

Deck #3 Green White Adventures

Updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2696566#paper

Initially I built a GW Adventures deck with Pelt Collector, Huatli's Raptor, less top end and zero Questing Beast... the deck felt hella bad and even lower tier than before.

However, after playing a ton with GW agro (Deck 3A), I think I figured out the key cards to make it good and where I went wrong... It performed well in a small sample and am looking to experiment with it further.
At the very start of the format, RB sacrifice was much more popular than it is now, which is a horrendous matchup.

Performance: A- (sample too small to draw a useful conclusion)
Sample: 3 Matches


Bonus Deck #3A Green White Agro

https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2696570#paper

Out of all the decks I played, I spent the most time with this deck.. An initial hot run, combined with being the only one playing with it, gave me great pleasure... However, after a lot of reps, I am pretty confident it falls just short of tier 1... despite being a good deck.
It has a slightly favourable control matchup, is favourable against aggressive decks (except white) and is a significant underdog to UG.

Nissa is extremely annoying against the deck. A 3/3 haste and Vigliance, pressures your planeswalkers and trades with almost all your creature. You also don't have many answers to the Nissa.
Tommik + beat downs is the best answer I could find to the card.

Bronzehide Lion is very very good. The protection on it comes up all the time, and it's a nice sized beater for the early game. I think it's slightly better than fleecemane lion.

After putting in many many hours with Elspeth, I am doubling down that she's good, but far from a Gideon Ally of Zendikar . A lot of people over-rate her.
She's bad on the backfoot and needs creatures to leverage her damage. She can't take over a game alone. Her -2 puts her immediately into Oath of Kaya range.
However, the escape is common and certainly a big bonus. The damage she can produce when you are pressuring is great!

Questing beast is absurd right now. Very few people are playing cards like Wicked Wolf or Love Struck Beast that trade efficiently with it. Teferi is everywhere and gets embarrassed by the beast. Questing beast + Elspeth or Vivien = 6 power, which is exactly the amount needed to kill an Ashiok in one shot. The planes-walkers make it grow out of Bonecrusher block range.

Vivien is the 3rd place 4 drop in the deck. Casting her is occasionally an issue with GGG, and there aren't many large creatures to maximum leverage the fight (contrasting GB). Still, pushing through extra damage and pumping up creatures is great.

I like growth chamber guardian right now, as esper isn't playing too many copies of legion's end, and it's a great threat against control... but it's one of the lower tier cards of the deck... it could change to something else depending on the meta.

The deck would really like slightly better mana , more efficient ways to push damage through against UG and another good 1 drop.

Performance: B+
Sample: ~20 Matches

Deck #4 4c Enigmatic Doom Blesssing

Non Updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661126#paper

Did not update the decklist as I quickly recognized some systematic flaws with the deck.
Paradise Druid + IlysianDruid is too much air to draw, if any of your engines get disrupted.
Also, it takes too long for your deck to do something truly busted. The control decks disrupt you, and the ramp decks go over the top of you.

Wouldn't be surprised if a mastermind deck builder could figure something out, but it would look quite different than this list. It looks like most people have stopped brewing with Enigmatic Incarnation and I'm one of them. Maybe one day..

Performance: D
Sample: ~8 Matches

Deck #5 Mono U Devotion self mill

Non updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661183#paper

Man, this deck is sweet when it goes off, but there were a few flaws I couldn't figure out.
It takes a bit too long to empty your deck, agro decks kill you too fast and you can't ever beat a Shifting Ceratops. One savage I played against had 4 Shifting Ceratops + 4 Mystical Dispute in his board :(

One thing I know for sure is Blue Cavaliers should be something different.
I'm sure the archtype can be improved, but I didn't see the potential in it enough to explore further.

Performance: D+
Sample: ~5 Matches


Deck #6 GB Cauldron
Updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2697939#paper

I spent quite a bit of time trying to get this one to work at the start of the format, as it was fun and I thought it had potential.

1) Cauldron + a stocked graveyard is insane. Cauldron is extremely powerful and belongs with the upper echelon of engines in the set. With the right draw it is not that hard to stock your graveyard enough for it to cost two mana by turn 5.
I've had multiple turn 5 kills with End-Raze forerunners + Cauldron.
I went up to 4 cauldron and am 100% that is the correct #.

2) The draws were clunky. You wanted a lot of 5+ drops for cauldron payout, and kill combo, so you had a lot of bad opening hands. The deck mulligans a lot and doesnt mulligan well.

3) The enablers are weak. Mire Triton + Glowspore Shaman are not good magic cards. Tymaret Calls the Dead is quite slow, and you often didn't want to exile creatures to get a zombie.

4) There is a lot of minor graveyard hate in this format that is devastating for the deck. It doesn't operate well with a diminshed graveyard. Elspeth's nightmare, Kaya etc.

5) I finally put it down because, I realized you go over the top similar to how GU goes over the top, but it's easier to disrupt, slower (on average) and less consistent.

If they print some better enablers, I'd definitely consider picking this deck up again. Also possible the Gray merchant plan is better... but the likelyhood of that is too small for me to spend more time on it.

Performance: C+
Sample: ~10 Matches

Deck #7 RW Fires 

Updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2697968#paper

God this deck is so fun! Fires got some new tools to play with and wanted to explore them. Maybe colorless utility lands and better mana would be enough that it didn't need the blue?

After playing a lot with it, unfortunately I think the answer is no. You REALLY miss Castle Vantress. It's so much better in fires than Castle Ardenvale. Without much actual card advantage, it's too easy to flood and do nothing. I missed Teferi quite a bit, and it felt better than the Ash Pheonix in your 3 cmc slot.

Elspeth Conquers Death is incredible against the deck, as is basically all the new tools Esper Control has. People are prepared for enchantments, which is awkward for the Idylic Tutor package. This deck doesn't operate well without Fires and I found Fires too easy to die or be discarded. Mystic repeal is a very nice new answer.

Tectonic giant is a very good card that has a clear Teferi problem. It also tough to attack into cards like Cavalier of Thorns  or a board state with mulitple Nissa lands. Overall I'd say this card would be a homerun in the archetype if Teferi didn't exist...
I like that Tec Giant + Bone Crusher Giant give you some giant tribal synergies for Realm-Cloaked Giant. Realm Cloaked is basically your only answer to a Dream Trawler... having creatures live through it is cool.

Ash Pheonix was AMAZING vs Esper, but lackluster in most other matchups. Prefer it as a sideboard card for the grindy matchups.

Haktos was ok... I always seemed to roll the wrong number when it mattered :P

Performance: B-
Sample: ~15 matches

Deck#8 Niv mizzet Ramp Update
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2698017#paper

Well.. I didn't think I could figure this archetype out... and... I still don't.. But I think it has potential.
I really wanted access to agent of treachery to go over the top of the GU decks.. I found the Niv version really struggled against that card. Thasa + Agent was too powerful for anything this deck did.
I really didn't want the critical # of diverse multi colored cards that makes Niv busted, so eventually settled with Golos instead.

Sweepers are key in fighting the devotion and mono color decks. You have many slow draws and need a way to come back in the game against decks looking to go fast.. so I prefer playing deafening clarion over the paradise druid + gilded goose.

The Dryad is amazing if you have the fuel to hit your land drops, but otherwise it is lack lustre. 2-3 is the right # imo. A key problem with this deck is there are no good 4 drops to play the same turn you have fires, so if you can accelerate into a 5th land the turn you play fires (off a Dryad or Uro), you can slam one of your fatty boom booms in the same turn.

I ran hot at the start, but the inconsistency of the deck is hard to overcome. Ultimately proved too inconsistent to me... but it's possible I'm building it wrong.

Performance: B
Sample: ~12 matches


Deck#9 BR Sacrifice

By the time I got around to this deck, control decks were on the rise, which made me really dislike Priest of the Forgotten Gods.
Woe strider + Bontu + Oven was still enough to make The Akroan War and Claim the First Born busted against creature decks... priest felt unnecessary.. so I wanted to figure out how to make the deck good against control decks. Therefore, I tried to hybridize the Fires version with the Sacrifice version.

Updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2698072#paper

My first idea was to splash blue for Thasa and Atris, and replace the 2 drop Stormfist Crusader with Yarok's Fenlurker. This would give Thasa a bunch of powerful blink targets. Thasa works well with Fires (activated ability) as well as the Akroan war (steal yo stuff).

While the interactions were very powerful when they were assembled, the cards I removed were too critical to the decks functioning. The deck really wants early card draw and chip damage to be able to set up for a big combo finish. Without the combo finish, other decks go over the top of you... While you can play a value game, that isn't the main goal of the deck. I didn't get it when I first looked at the decklist, but Stormfist is central to the decks functioning.

Atris is amazing against grindy decks, but ultimately decided it wasn't worth the cost of a more painful mana base and a basic island. In an esper heavy metagame, Atris would be a worthy addition, but right now the archetypes are too balanced, that I'm back to straight BR.

I believe the deck functions well enough without the Red Cavalier. that I don't want 4 copies. The Cavalier is only great when you have fires, but clunks the deck up considerably when you don't. That being said, having access to the combo kill and ways to pitch dead cards game 1 is still important.

Performance: A-
Sample: ~20 matches

Deck #10 Grixis Kroxa 

Non-updated
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661592#paper (Add Lazav)

The first deck I tried, that ultimately let me down.
I over-rated Kroxa, Titan's of Death Hunger. The 3 damage isn't impactful enough in a deck that is looking to win with haymakers, not chip damage.

2 mana make your opponent discard a card is a very inefficient play. The damage and recursive value are critical to the cards power.
I found there were enough ways to deal with the card, either by bouncing it or killing it, or exiling it from the graveyard that the recursive value it provided wasn't enough.
It eats your graveyard substantially that it's unlikely you get more than 1 escape out of ALL of them.

Thief of sanity was bad for me. It was rare I hit the opponent with it.. and filling graveyards is worse than ever now. Bonecrusher + Teferi + Claim the Firstborn make the card feel maximum poop.

UG decks go over the top of you, and aggressive decks go under neath you.

If there's a build of this that works , it's for a very specific meta-game and it involves leaning on Lazav + Kroxa.. and staying away from Thief of Sanity.

Performance: D+
Sample: ~7 matches

Conclusion

Excited to explore Bant auras + BR fires more, as they were the two winners out of the testing...
Format is still very unexplored and I would not be surprised if something out of left field proves to be tier 1. One thing for sure is I am having a blast in new standard!

If you are looking for a decent deck to play for a tournament, look around for good decklists on the following archetypes.

Esper/UW/UB Control
Temur Elementals (Crokeyz latest build)
UGx Ramp
Bant Auras
Mono R (Cleave + Anax based)

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