THB Standard Pre-Release: 10 Key cards, 10 Predictions and 10 Brews!
NEW STANDARD WOOHOOO!!
The first month of a new standard format is easily my favourite time in magic. The unknown space where people are trying out the new cards and new ideas. In today's information rich environment it's one of the few opportunities deck builders and metagamers have to truly break it. The idea of breaking a format fuels my ego and motivates me more than nearly everything in magic..
I'm VERY excited for the new cards in THB standard. Lots of interesting build around cards with plenty of support. I think they hit a home run with this set (for standard).
Ten Format Warping Cards
Whenever I examine a new format, while most people are focused on what are the most powerful cards, I'm keeping my eyes peeled for what are the most format warping cards and strategies. It doesn't matter if there are a bunch of great 1/1 creatures if every color has their own Goblin Chainwhirler. It doesn't matter if there are a bunch of great enchantments if every color has their own Dromoka's Command.
Here are ten of the most warping cards printed in THB.
#1 Shatter the sky
We are back into four mana wrath of god territory! While Kaya's Wrath technically fell under that category, WWBB was a HUGE constraint on the mana.
A four mana wrath is a constraining factor for decks looking to attack the format by going wide. If a UW control deck is viable, 3-4 mana creatures that do not provide any value the turn they come into play have gotten worse.
The first line of text also has a warping effect on the type of creatures that see play. 4 power = good, 3 power = bad.
Tarnika, Akroan Veteran is a very powerful card that may be a casualty of the existence of shatter the sky.
Bronzehide Lion (indestructible) stock goes up when people are playing more wraths.
#2 Heliod's Intervention
Control decks should LOVE this card! We are going into a format that already has a ton of broken artifacts and enchantments AND they have just released a set loaded with constructed playable enchantment creatures and enchantments. Without a doubt, artifacts and enchantments will play a key roll in the upcoming standard format. The ability to destroy them on mass OR gain a lot of life is a HUGE deal for control decks. Reid duke wrote an excellent article on why control decks need life gain on channelfireball (worth googling).
This card is so good, that depending on the power of W control, it could invalidate certain artifact/enchantment based strategies. If you are building a W control deck early in the format, make sure you main deck a copy of this card.
#3 Setessan Champion
In my opinion this is one of the top 3 most powerful cards in the set and will be the hallmark for strategies based around enchantments. It is the edgewall innkeeper of the set... It's more expensive, but its a threat by itself and with enchantment creatures , you can compose your deck of almost all enchantments. The sheer power of it will warp formats to have the appropriate removal spells to kill it or interact with it.
It needs to be in a deck with a lot of enchantments, so she rises the stock of efficient enchantment removal.. which subsequently lowers the stock of enchantments in other decks.
#4 Storm's Wrath
Another powerful wrath for red!
Deafening clarion made 4 toughness a critical inflection point for dodging damage based wraths.
This card is powerful enough to change that number to 5 toughness.
It also effects planeswalkers with lower loyalty and strategies looking to go wide on planeswalkers. It is particularly good against elspeth, as it sweeps up her tokens and kills her!
#5 LIFE GAIN
Gray merchant of asphodel, Heliod, Tymaret calls the dead, Erebos's intervention, Uro (I could go on).
This standard was already saturated with powerful life gain, now it's even more saturated. Winning the game via burning your opponent out in small chunks will not be a viable strategy in the upcoming format. Aggressive decks are going to need a combo element. Either going very wide/tall, or with enchantments like All that Glitters to push huge chunks of damage through.
#6 Agonizing Remorse
If your deck is relying on synergies and engines that come down after turn two, this card in conjunction with thought erasure will make life hard for you. Cards like Setessan champion , Doom Foretold, Wilderness reclamation and Fires of Invention all have their stock drop with the existence of this card. If a black reactive deck or a discard -> threat style of deck exists, this will be the backbone of it.
#7 Destiny Spinner
I believe this is one of the better enchantment creatures for the enchantment based decks. That first ability is a nightmare for flash strategies. It's even playable in sideboards of non enchantment based green decks.
Counter spells take a further hit with the existence of this card.
#8 The Akroan War
Maybe I'm overestimating this card, but RB sacrifice got a LOT of goodies from this set and I think this is the best of the lot. Creatures that are particularly devastating when stolen from you and cards that hate to be goaded (II ability) lose some points (Risen reef).
I think this card is so good because RB has a ridiculous # of good sacrifice outlets, such that your opponent should basically never get their creature back.
Act of treason strategies could be self correcting , in that it may prepel UW control into top tier status, which is awful for this card...
#9 Gray Merchant of Asphodel
My boy GARY is back and he's brought company. How he warps the format?
Too much self damage can punish you against midrange strategies as well as the agressive strategies.
While the incidental life gain in the format should push out burn strategies, mono black devotion being on top means you still need to watch your life total. I've lost countless games when I'm a head against an un-timely Gray Merchant. This is bad for cards like Command the Dreadhorde in strategies that don't gain a bunch of life or win the game the turn its cast.
#10 Eat to Extinction
While I don't think this card would have been very good in the previous format (competes with murderous rider and exile wasn't too important). It will certainly serve a roll in the upcoming format.
A few of the gods are indestructible/good and will want an answer. Bronzehide Lion would be a very annoying card for UW control in Eldraine standard, splashing for a card like this is a nice option.
I expect to see a lot of Cavalier of Thorns, which this card deals with effectively.
It's splashability makes it a card that a lot of decks could have access to in their sideboard.
One advantage it has over Murderous Rider , is it's a non-creature type, so decks looking to play Narset now have a versatile removal spell that doesn't hit their non-creature count.
Ten Predictions
#1- Mono Red Agro is super unplayable
They got ZERO good one drops in this set (something they were severely needing), ZERO good burn spells, no effective answer to Lovestruck Beast, a mediocore two drop, an excellent 3 drop (Pheonix of Ash), but that's basically it. AND the rest of the format got oversaturated with lifegain and had it's
power ramped up. STAY AWAY.
#2- UG ramp will be the most popular deck in early weeks
While they didn't get too much as far as additional early ramp, their midgame got a substantial boost in the printing of Uro. Card is nuts. They got some great sideboard cards against counterspell decks and aggressive decks. Outgrinding them will be near possible.
Dryad of the Elysian grove works extremely well with Nissa ,Who Shakes the World and lots of lands... But is in direct competition with Uro and Risen reef, so will probably take a backseat.
#3- There's a lot of interesting ways to build ramp decks late game, Nissa/Krassis will still win out.
Nissa/Krassis is too efficient of a combination that doesn't require much deck building concession to include. The other powerful late game engines require more build around and therefore can't sideboard pivot vs counter spells or targeted hate.
#4- Esper (or UW) control is BACK.
Esper got TWO critical temples for this strategy and a ton of VERY good cards.
I was impressed with straight UW by the end of the last format. Theros filled all that strategies holes and it can now have a very light black splash for nearly free.
#5- Theros Beyond Death is one of the deepest magic sets for standard in the history of the game.
The sheer depth of constructed playable cards is impressive and is EXACTLY how I've hoped wizards would design their sets. There are a boatload of cards that are constructed playable, but only within a specific strategy. There are few generic powerful cards ala Gideon Ally of Zendikar or Jace Vryn's Prodigy, but lots of build arounds.
An oppressive top tier deck might overshadow the depth of tier 2 options available, but I'm optimistic that won't happen.
#6- The Engine cards are too powerful to make generic good stuff midrange decks playable
This isn't a format of nickle and diming value, it's a format of haymakers , combos and decks running away with the game when their engines go unchecked. It's a threat format, not a 1 for 1 answer format. An answer deck can exist, but it has to rely on wraths and ways to kill multiple non-creature permanents in one card.
#7- Esper Hero won't be tier 1
This is an extension of six.. and one I could easily be wrong about.. Bone-crusher giant is too effective at shutting down the creature engines of esper hero... and I can't see it ever competing with a good UG ramp deck. That being said it got a HUGE boost in it's mana base, Ashiok, Agonizing remorse and Atris, Oracle of Half Truths. I still don't think it will be enough.
#8- Underworld Breach is standard playable
Maybe not this set, (see Temur Reclamation below), but I think the card has legs as a late game value/combo engine in decks that loot it away in the early game and fills the graveyard.
#9- Pheonix of Ash is incredibly powerful, but will be held back from a lack of supporting cards
I'm going to try to make phoenix work, because gee golly is this card powerful. But it wants to be in an aggressive strategy that has a lot of mountains... which is woefully under-supported in the format.
#10- An enchantment deck build around Setessan Champion will be top tier
I've been brewing with this card, and the sheer number of options wizards has given us to break this card, is impressive. I'd be surprised if at least one of a variant of them isn't part of the set of best decks. Either midrange or agro.
Ten Brews
Alright, on to the fun stuff! I've been thinking a lot about this format and wanted to share my ideas. Spending time on the specifics of the numbers is a waste of time (I spent WAY more than I should have), so the decklists are meant mostly to get a sense of the powerful interactions the archetype has, and my rough guess at where you should start.
The more reactive a deck, the more off the numbers will be at start.
Gathering information is the most important thing to do in week #1, not trying to break it right away.
At the end of the analysis, I give a prediction for the likelihood the ARCHETYPE (not my list) ends up being tier 1.
Note: Follow mtggoldfish link to get manabases
Deck #1 - Temur Reclamation
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2660980
4x Scorching Dragonfire
4x Growth spiral
1x Omen of the sea
2x Quench
2x Underworld Breach
4x Thirst for meaning
1x Klothys, God of Destiny
2x Sinister sabotage
2x Thassa's Intervention
3x Storm's Wrath
1x Tamiyo, Collector of tales
4x Wilderness Reclamation
4x Expansion//Explosion
1x Chemisters insight
I'm very excited about trying some of these ideas out.
Thirst for meaning is a great end step card selection spell, that also fuels the graveyard for Escape.
Thirst for meaning works well with Underworld Breach, as you can easily loot away the card in the early game, but it also fills the graveyard for it when you draw it in the late game.
Underworld Breach allows you to get back your critical Wilderness Reclamations that were destroyed or discarded. It also allows you to to flashback spells on endstep, with the mana you made from wilderness reclamation. Thirst for meaning discards two cards and itself , which is exactly the escape cost needed for another spell... so as long as you have the mana, you should be able to chain off a bit digging for explosion.
Storm's Wrath is HUGE for the archetype, as it allows you to kill Teferi/Narset combo, which was one of the more annoying duos this deck faced. It also is a decent candidate for expansion, to devastate a board with Nissa on it.
Scorching dragonfire is conveniently a way to exile escape cards, and it also is a way to interact with setassan champion at instant speed.
Klothys seems interesting to try in the deck. It's very hard to answer, an enchantment to pitch with thirst if you need to hold up counterspell mana or don't have a graveyard. Gives some precious graveyard hate and lifegain for long games, and can also ramps you. Knocking the opponent down a few pips in life is good to make a medium sized expansion lethal.
Prediction: 10% tier 1
Deck #2 Green White Enchantments
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661020
3x Alseid of Life's Bounty
4x Destiny Spinner
4x Starfield Mystic
1x Transcended Envoy
2x Bronzehide Lion
4x Setessan Champion
2x Siona, Captain of Plyeas
2x Archon of Sun's Grace
4x All that glitters
4x Setessan Training
2x Angelic Gift
2x Mantle of the wolf
2x Banishing Light
The idea of this deck is to chain through your deck with cantripping enchantments, cost reduced by starlight mystic, draw a bazillion more cards with Setessan Champion, then set up for a huge attack with a battlecruiser type creature that has all that glitters or mantle of the wolf on it. Both the cantripping enchantments grant evasion, which work very well with all that glitters or a big champion.
I think it's almost certain that something like this becomes a tier 1 strategy.
It is one of the most powerful FAST things you can do in the format when uninterrupted.. And while it has some fragility to it, it's a little less fragile than it when it may appear.
Spot removal is bad in the previous format, but this deck may make it necessary.
There was a lot of hype regarding Staggering insight, but I don't think it's worth splashing for. The deck is so streamlined as it is.
Prediction = 75% Tier 1
Deck #3 Green White Adventures
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661054#paper
4x Faerie Godmother
3x Pelt collector
4x Giant Killer
4x Edgewall Innkeeper
4x Bronzehide Lion
1x Huatli's Raptor
2x Shepard of the flock
4x Lovestruck Beast
1x Tarnika, Akroan Veteran
4x Venerated Loxodon
1x Shadowspear
2x Elspeth, Sun's Nemesis
2x Unbreakable Formation
Likely a worse version than the enchantments deck (serves a similar roll on the meta).. Wanted to highlight there were a few nice cards printed for GW agro in Tarnika, Elspeth, Shadowspear and Bronzehide lion. Tarnika works nicely with all the janky 1/1 creatures, Bronzehide is a very powerful card as is Elspeth. Shadowspear is an awesome equipment at pushing creature damage through... and turning small evasive creatures into real threats.
It should be worse against blockers than the enchantment deck, better against spot removal, better against targeted discard, and equally terrible against wraths.
Prediction = 2% Tier 1
Deck #4 4c Enigmatic Doom Blesssing
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661126#paper
4x Paradise druid
4x Ilysian Caryatid
3x Destiny Spinner
2x Dryad of Ilysian Grove
3x Treacherous Blessing
4x Oath of Kaya
4x Enigmatic Incarnation
3x Doom foretold
4x Nightmare Shepard
1x Polukranos
2x Kenrith, The returned King
1x Massacre Girl
This is my brain child that I spent WAY too long thinking of specifics... and it is sweet.
Basically, the idea of the deck is to break Enigmatic Incarnation.
If you have a 3 mana enchantment in play that you've already got value from, then sacrifice it on endstep for a 4 mana creature, enigmatic incarnation essentially cost nothing, and you now have it in play next turn to keep getting value from. That's very powerful.
If the opponent is sacrificing creatures with doom foretold for no value and you are sacrificing 3 mana enchantments that have already gotten value, that's a huge win.
There is SO much deck tension in this deck and SO many options depending on the meta.
Biggest concern with this deck is the mana fixing. It's possible the mana makes it such that you can't merge Doom Foretold with incarnation (or at least not play Oath of Kaya). Elspeth's Nightmare is a decent Oath of Kaya replacement.
Prediction: 25% Tier 1
Deck #5 Mono U Devotion self mill
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661183#paper
4x Merfolk Secret Keeper
4x Thassa's Oracle
4x Wall of lost thoughts
4x Brazen Borrower
3x Gadwick
2x Thassa
3x Cavalier of Gales
4x Opt
4x Drowned Secrets
2x Ashiok, Nightmare render
1x Jace Wielder of mysteries
1x Quasiduplicate
Thassa's Oracle is an incredibly good magic card. On an empty board, it does a reasonably close Omenspeaker impression, a card that is close to constructed playable in a slow deck. It also wins by itself in the mid-late game!
The goal with this deck is to mill yourself and maximize devotion to make a Thassa's Oracle win the game.
There's some minor subsynergizes to work with Thassa (Cavalier of gales + Wall of Thoughts + Thassa's Oracle).
One potential weakness I see with this strategy is if your opponent is playing counter magic, they might make it tough for you to resolve Oracle/Jace at the end of the game. One cool thing is that, depending on the matchup, this strategy can pivot and win by milling the opponent instead!
The other option is to splash white for Teferri and Time Wipe. Teferi is VERY good in this deck. All the creatures have good ETB effects or adventure spells and it allows your end game to not be interacted with at instant speed.
Time wipe is good for buying time , triggers drowned secrets and also rebuys the ETB creatures.
You'd only want 1-2 copies, but the threat of a wrath changes gameplay a lot.
My gut tells me the white splash is worth it.
Prediction: 10% Tier 1
Deck #6 GB Cauldron
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661209#paper
1x Chainweb Aracnir
4x Glowspore Shaman
4x Mire Triton
4x Paradise Druid
1x The binding of the Titans
4x Tymaret Calls the Dead
2x Murderous Rider
1x Beanstalk Giant
1x Polukranos, Unchained
2x Acolyte of Affliction
3x Molderhulk
4x Cavalier of Thorns
2x End-Raze Forerunners
1x Izoni
2x Cauldron of eternity
On my twitter, I posted a version that was built upon self mill, Command the Dreadhorde and Gray Merchant of Asphodel, but the more I thought about it, End-raze Forerunners seems like a more powerful/consistent way of abusing the cauldron. A lot of your dinky creatures don't really do much on board, so finding a way to leverage them is important.
Cavalier of Thorns transitions perfectly to the end-raze forerunners end game, but playing that alongside grey merchant was too awkward for the curve. If you can stall the game enough to get 5 creatures in your GY + Cauldron + End Raze Forerunners, you can win the game with just 5 mana!
Mire Triton and Tymaret that calls the dead was the missing piece of this puzzle from the previous set that could make cauldron a competitive magic card!
My concern about this strategy is that there are a lot of "bad cards" that would leave the strategy vulnerable to thought erasure + GY hate, or counter magic.
Prediction : 5% tier 1
Deck #7 RW Fires
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661319#paper
3 Bonecrusher Giant
2 Thrill of Possibility
2 Justice Strike
4 Deafening Clarion
1 Idyllic Tutor
2 Banishing Light
4 Fires of Invention
3 Ash Pheonix
2 Haktos
3 Tectonic Giant
4 Cavalier of Flame
2 Kenrith, The Returned King
2 God-Eternal-Oketra
With the new set, it's clear that a very similar version to Jeskai Fires is possible without the blue! You miss some important cards (Sphinx of foresight and Castle Vantress are the biggest ones), but it's possble an improved mana base is worth it? You could justify a couple coloress utility lands now! Phoenix of Ash in particular is interesting. It works well with Fires of Invention, but not so much with Deafening Clarion. Haktos could range from anywhere from incredible to unplayable. Works very well with Deafening Clarion... 2/3 of the time :)
Idylic tutor can find a split of Banishing light of fires (or Purphoros!).. Not sure if that's worth it for 3 mana. Fires is such an important card, but 3 mana is sooooo much. I'm confident this deck will be very good, but I'm guessing it won't be better than Jeskai.. This build is an expose of the cards that work well in the strategy from the new set.
Prediction: 10% tier 1, 80% worse than Jeskai
Deck#8 Niv mizzet Ramp
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661343#paper
4x Gilded Goose
3x Paradise Druid
4x Growth Spiral
4x Dryad of Ilysian Grove
3x Teferi, Time reveler
4x Casualties of war
4x Niv Mizzet Reborn
2x Fires of Invention
3x Hydroid Krasis
2x Escape to the wilds
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661414#paper
3x Arboreal Grazer
4x Growth Spiral
4x Dryad of Ilysian Grove
2x Uro
3x Deafening Clarion
1x Solar Blaze
4x Fires of Invention
3x Niv Mizzet Reborn
1x Golos
4x Casualties of war
2x Hydroid Krasis
1x Escape to the wilds
The first version involves green creature ramp. The second is way greedier, utilizes sweepers and relies heavier on the fixing of Dryad and Fires.
While probably not good enough, I wanted to see if I can build a deck that merges the Dryad with Niv Nizzet. Casting Niv Mizzet consistently is a sexy idea, but the deck building concessions may be too much. These kind of decks are outside of my area of expertise, but maybe genius can break it. You better believe I'll be trying tinkering with this though!
Prediction: 1% tier 1 for mortals, 10% tier 1 if you are Japanese.
Deck # 9a BR sac
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661539#paper
4x Cauldron Familiar
4x Gutterbones
4x Priest of forgotten gods
1x Lazotep Reaver
4x Woe Strider
4x Mayhem Devil
1x Murderous Rider
2x Midnight Reaper
1x Rankle
1x Erebos
1x Bontu
4x Witch's Oven
3x The Akroan War
2x Claim The Firstborn
This was the decklist I first posted to twitter. Rb Sacrifice got some HUGE buffs and now have a variety of options, depending on the metagame. Akroan War and Woe Strider were likely the biggest upgrades. The sheer number of sac outlets in this deck is very impressive.. If strategies involve putting creatures onto the battlefield and don't have much removal for priest of forgotten gods/mayhem devil, they are going to get SHREDDEDED by this deck.
Prediction: 75% Tier 1 Deck
#9b BR fires
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661560#paper
4x Cauldron Familiar
1x Kroxa, Titan's of Death Hunger
2x Bonecrusher Giant
4x Mayhem Devil
2x Midnight Reaper
2x Woe Strider
3x The Akroan War
4x Fires of Invention
4x Cavalier of Flame
4x Bontu
4x Witch's Oven
The Bontu/ Cavalier of flame/ Akroan war interaction strikes me as very powerful. I wanted to lean a little heavier on it and see what the deck would look like if it went bigger. The list below is using John Rolf's MCVII as the base. Trying to maximize Bontu.
Tymaret calls the dead is somewhat interesting, as it fills the graveyard for Kroxa/Strider and puts lands in the graveyard for cavalier death trigger and gives food for bontu.
3 slot is super clogged so I have no whats better.
Early in the format I like a mix of the cards to get a feel for what plays out better.
I don't like the lack of early plays and the lack of comeback mechanics.
Prediction: 20% Tier 1
Deck #10 Grixis Kroxa
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661592#paper
4x Thought Erasure
4x Kroxa, Titan's of Death Hunger
2x Agonizing Remorse
2x Tyrant's Scorn
2x Drown in the Loch
3x Discovery//Dispersal
4x Thief of sanity
2x Murderous Rider
1x Atris, Oracle of half truths
2x Ritual of soot
2x Eat to extinction
3x Nicol Bolas
2x Ashiok, Nightmare muse
1x Erebos' Intervention
As a recovering Grixis addict, I am excited about this deck. I think Kroxa is a busted magic card, but require some build around. When properly utilized Kroxa strikes me as a top 5 card and isn't getting nearly enough attention.
I played a LOT of Grixis back when we had better mana and 4 mana Nicol Bolas. From what I remember, Interactive cards + discovery//dispersal + discard, fills up your graveyard thoroughly. Kroxa + Remorse + thought erasure should shred hands, which should leave thief of sanity alive. This may be thief's come back party!
Nicol bolas has always been a busted card, but he wants the opponent to be low resources for the +1 to put a squeeze on the opponents mana base.. The extra discard could be what bolas needs.
Ashiok is a very powerful planeswalker that helps Grixis deal with permanent types they otherwise would struggle with.
I know for sure I'll be playing an unhealthy amount of this strategy, win or lose!
Prediction: 15% Tier 1 (mana base will hold it back)
Conclusion:
Beyond excited for Theros!! Tons of new powerful interactions and archetypes to be explored. Think there's a good a chance many of the decklists I posted in this article will be competitive with top tier decks! If you are going to play with any of the decklists in early tournaments or on stream, would love if you give me and my blog a shout out!
Here are ten of the most warping cards printed in THB.
#1 Shatter the sky
We are back into four mana wrath of god territory! While Kaya's Wrath technically fell under that category, WWBB was a HUGE constraint on the mana.
A four mana wrath is a constraining factor for decks looking to attack the format by going wide. If a UW control deck is viable, 3-4 mana creatures that do not provide any value the turn they come into play have gotten worse.
The first line of text also has a warping effect on the type of creatures that see play. 4 power = good, 3 power = bad.
Tarnika, Akroan Veteran is a very powerful card that may be a casualty of the existence of shatter the sky.
Bronzehide Lion (indestructible) stock goes up when people are playing more wraths.
#2 Heliod's Intervention
Control decks should LOVE this card! We are going into a format that already has a ton of broken artifacts and enchantments AND they have just released a set loaded with constructed playable enchantment creatures and enchantments. Without a doubt, artifacts and enchantments will play a key roll in the upcoming standard format. The ability to destroy them on mass OR gain a lot of life is a HUGE deal for control decks. Reid duke wrote an excellent article on why control decks need life gain on channelfireball (worth googling).
This card is so good, that depending on the power of W control, it could invalidate certain artifact/enchantment based strategies. If you are building a W control deck early in the format, make sure you main deck a copy of this card.
#3 Setessan Champion
In my opinion this is one of the top 3 most powerful cards in the set and will be the hallmark for strategies based around enchantments. It is the edgewall innkeeper of the set... It's more expensive, but its a threat by itself and with enchantment creatures , you can compose your deck of almost all enchantments. The sheer power of it will warp formats to have the appropriate removal spells to kill it or interact with it.
It needs to be in a deck with a lot of enchantments, so she rises the stock of efficient enchantment removal.. which subsequently lowers the stock of enchantments in other decks.
#4 Storm's Wrath
Another powerful wrath for red!
Deafening clarion made 4 toughness a critical inflection point for dodging damage based wraths.
This card is powerful enough to change that number to 5 toughness.
It also effects planeswalkers with lower loyalty and strategies looking to go wide on planeswalkers. It is particularly good against elspeth, as it sweeps up her tokens and kills her!
#5 LIFE GAIN
Gray merchant of asphodel, Heliod, Tymaret calls the dead, Erebos's intervention, Uro (I could go on).
This standard was already saturated with powerful life gain, now it's even more saturated. Winning the game via burning your opponent out in small chunks will not be a viable strategy in the upcoming format. Aggressive decks are going to need a combo element. Either going very wide/tall, or with enchantments like All that Glitters to push huge chunks of damage through.
#6 Agonizing Remorse
If your deck is relying on synergies and engines that come down after turn two, this card in conjunction with thought erasure will make life hard for you. Cards like Setessan champion , Doom Foretold, Wilderness reclamation and Fires of Invention all have their stock drop with the existence of this card. If a black reactive deck or a discard -> threat style of deck exists, this will be the backbone of it.
#7 Destiny Spinner
I believe this is one of the better enchantment creatures for the enchantment based decks. That first ability is a nightmare for flash strategies. It's even playable in sideboards of non enchantment based green decks.
Counter spells take a further hit with the existence of this card.
#8 The Akroan War
Maybe I'm overestimating this card, but RB sacrifice got a LOT of goodies from this set and I think this is the best of the lot. Creatures that are particularly devastating when stolen from you and cards that hate to be goaded (II ability) lose some points (Risen reef).
I think this card is so good because RB has a ridiculous # of good sacrifice outlets, such that your opponent should basically never get their creature back.
Act of treason strategies could be self correcting , in that it may prepel UW control into top tier status, which is awful for this card...
#9 Gray Merchant of Asphodel
My boy GARY is back and he's brought company. How he warps the format?
Too much self damage can punish you against midrange strategies as well as the agressive strategies.
While the incidental life gain in the format should push out burn strategies, mono black devotion being on top means you still need to watch your life total. I've lost countless games when I'm a head against an un-timely Gray Merchant. This is bad for cards like Command the Dreadhorde in strategies that don't gain a bunch of life or win the game the turn its cast.
#10 Eat to Extinction
While I don't think this card would have been very good in the previous format (competes with murderous rider and exile wasn't too important). It will certainly serve a roll in the upcoming format.
A few of the gods are indestructible/good and will want an answer. Bronzehide Lion would be a very annoying card for UW control in Eldraine standard, splashing for a card like this is a nice option.
I expect to see a lot of Cavalier of Thorns, which this card deals with effectively.
It's splashability makes it a card that a lot of decks could have access to in their sideboard.
One advantage it has over Murderous Rider , is it's a non-creature type, so decks looking to play Narset now have a versatile removal spell that doesn't hit their non-creature count.
Ten Predictions
#1- Mono Red Agro is super unplayable
They got ZERO good one drops in this set (something they were severely needing), ZERO good burn spells, no effective answer to Lovestruck Beast, a mediocore two drop, an excellent 3 drop (Pheonix of Ash), but that's basically it. AND the rest of the format got oversaturated with lifegain and had it's
power ramped up. STAY AWAY.
#2- UG ramp will be the most popular deck in early weeks
While they didn't get too much as far as additional early ramp, their midgame got a substantial boost in the printing of Uro. Card is nuts. They got some great sideboard cards against counterspell decks and aggressive decks. Outgrinding them will be near possible.
Dryad of the Elysian grove works extremely well with Nissa ,Who Shakes the World and lots of lands... But is in direct competition with Uro and Risen reef, so will probably take a backseat.
#3- There's a lot of interesting ways to build ramp decks late game, Nissa/Krassis will still win out.
Nissa/Krassis is too efficient of a combination that doesn't require much deck building concession to include. The other powerful late game engines require more build around and therefore can't sideboard pivot vs counter spells or targeted hate.
#4- Esper (or UW) control is BACK.
Esper got TWO critical temples for this strategy and a ton of VERY good cards.
I was impressed with straight UW by the end of the last format. Theros filled all that strategies holes and it can now have a very light black splash for nearly free.
#5- Theros Beyond Death is one of the deepest magic sets for standard in the history of the game.
The sheer depth of constructed playable cards is impressive and is EXACTLY how I've hoped wizards would design their sets. There are a boatload of cards that are constructed playable, but only within a specific strategy. There are few generic powerful cards ala Gideon Ally of Zendikar or Jace Vryn's Prodigy, but lots of build arounds.
An oppressive top tier deck might overshadow the depth of tier 2 options available, but I'm optimistic that won't happen.
#6- The Engine cards are too powerful to make generic good stuff midrange decks playable
This isn't a format of nickle and diming value, it's a format of haymakers , combos and decks running away with the game when their engines go unchecked. It's a threat format, not a 1 for 1 answer format. An answer deck can exist, but it has to rely on wraths and ways to kill multiple non-creature permanents in one card.
#7- Esper Hero won't be tier 1
This is an extension of six.. and one I could easily be wrong about.. Bone-crusher giant is too effective at shutting down the creature engines of esper hero... and I can't see it ever competing with a good UG ramp deck. That being said it got a HUGE boost in it's mana base, Ashiok, Agonizing remorse and Atris, Oracle of Half Truths. I still don't think it will be enough.
#8- Underworld Breach is standard playable
Maybe not this set, (see Temur Reclamation below), but I think the card has legs as a late game value/combo engine in decks that loot it away in the early game and fills the graveyard.
#9- Pheonix of Ash is incredibly powerful, but will be held back from a lack of supporting cards
I'm going to try to make phoenix work, because gee golly is this card powerful. But it wants to be in an aggressive strategy that has a lot of mountains... which is woefully under-supported in the format.
#10- An enchantment deck build around Setessan Champion will be top tier
I've been brewing with this card, and the sheer number of options wizards has given us to break this card, is impressive. I'd be surprised if at least one of a variant of them isn't part of the set of best decks. Either midrange or agro.
Ten Brews
Alright, on to the fun stuff! I've been thinking a lot about this format and wanted to share my ideas. Spending time on the specifics of the numbers is a waste of time (I spent WAY more than I should have), so the decklists are meant mostly to get a sense of the powerful interactions the archetype has, and my rough guess at where you should start.
The more reactive a deck, the more off the numbers will be at start.
Gathering information is the most important thing to do in week #1, not trying to break it right away.
At the end of the analysis, I give a prediction for the likelihood the ARCHETYPE (not my list) ends up being tier 1.
Note: Follow mtggoldfish link to get manabases
Deck #1 - Temur Reclamation
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2660980
4x Scorching Dragonfire
4x Growth spiral
1x Omen of the sea
2x Quench
2x Underworld Breach
4x Thirst for meaning
1x Klothys, God of Destiny
2x Sinister sabotage
2x Thassa's Intervention
3x Storm's Wrath
1x Tamiyo, Collector of tales
4x Wilderness Reclamation
4x Expansion//Explosion
1x Chemisters insight
I'm very excited about trying some of these ideas out.
Thirst for meaning is a great end step card selection spell, that also fuels the graveyard for Escape.
Thirst for meaning works well with Underworld Breach, as you can easily loot away the card in the early game, but it also fills the graveyard for it when you draw it in the late game.
Underworld Breach allows you to get back your critical Wilderness Reclamations that were destroyed or discarded. It also allows you to to flashback spells on endstep, with the mana you made from wilderness reclamation. Thirst for meaning discards two cards and itself , which is exactly the escape cost needed for another spell... so as long as you have the mana, you should be able to chain off a bit digging for explosion.
Storm's Wrath is HUGE for the archetype, as it allows you to kill Teferi/Narset combo, which was one of the more annoying duos this deck faced. It also is a decent candidate for expansion, to devastate a board with Nissa on it.
Scorching dragonfire is conveniently a way to exile escape cards, and it also is a way to interact with setassan champion at instant speed.
Klothys seems interesting to try in the deck. It's very hard to answer, an enchantment to pitch with thirst if you need to hold up counterspell mana or don't have a graveyard. Gives some precious graveyard hate and lifegain for long games, and can also ramps you. Knocking the opponent down a few pips in life is good to make a medium sized expansion lethal.
Prediction: 10% tier 1
Deck #2 Green White Enchantments
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661020
3x Alseid of Life's Bounty
4x Destiny Spinner
4x Starfield Mystic
1x Transcended Envoy
2x Bronzehide Lion
4x Setessan Champion
2x Siona, Captain of Plyeas
2x Archon of Sun's Grace
4x All that glitters
4x Setessan Training
2x Angelic Gift
2x Mantle of the wolf
2x Banishing Light
The idea of this deck is to chain through your deck with cantripping enchantments, cost reduced by starlight mystic, draw a bazillion more cards with Setessan Champion, then set up for a huge attack with a battlecruiser type creature that has all that glitters or mantle of the wolf on it. Both the cantripping enchantments grant evasion, which work very well with all that glitters or a big champion.
I think it's almost certain that something like this becomes a tier 1 strategy.
It is one of the most powerful FAST things you can do in the format when uninterrupted.. And while it has some fragility to it, it's a little less fragile than it when it may appear.
Spot removal is bad in the previous format, but this deck may make it necessary.
There was a lot of hype regarding Staggering insight, but I don't think it's worth splashing for. The deck is so streamlined as it is.
Prediction = 75% Tier 1
Deck #3 Green White Adventures
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661054#paper
4x Faerie Godmother
3x Pelt collector
4x Giant Killer
4x Edgewall Innkeeper
4x Bronzehide Lion
1x Huatli's Raptor
2x Shepard of the flock
4x Lovestruck Beast
1x Tarnika, Akroan Veteran
4x Venerated Loxodon
1x Shadowspear
2x Elspeth, Sun's Nemesis
2x Unbreakable Formation
Likely a worse version than the enchantments deck (serves a similar roll on the meta).. Wanted to highlight there were a few nice cards printed for GW agro in Tarnika, Elspeth, Shadowspear and Bronzehide lion. Tarnika works nicely with all the janky 1/1 creatures, Bronzehide is a very powerful card as is Elspeth. Shadowspear is an awesome equipment at pushing creature damage through... and turning small evasive creatures into real threats.
It should be worse against blockers than the enchantment deck, better against spot removal, better against targeted discard, and equally terrible against wraths.
Prediction = 2% Tier 1
Deck #4 4c Enigmatic Doom Blesssing
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661126#paper
4x Paradise druid
4x Ilysian Caryatid
3x Destiny Spinner
2x Dryad of Ilysian Grove
3x Treacherous Blessing
4x Oath of Kaya
4x Enigmatic Incarnation
3x Doom foretold
4x Nightmare Shepard
1x Polukranos
2x Kenrith, The returned King
1x Massacre Girl
This is my brain child that I spent WAY too long thinking of specifics... and it is sweet.
Basically, the idea of the deck is to break Enigmatic Incarnation.
If you have a 3 mana enchantment in play that you've already got value from, then sacrifice it on endstep for a 4 mana creature, enigmatic incarnation essentially cost nothing, and you now have it in play next turn to keep getting value from. That's very powerful.
If the opponent is sacrificing creatures with doom foretold for no value and you are sacrificing 3 mana enchantments that have already gotten value, that's a huge win.
There is SO much deck tension in this deck and SO many options depending on the meta.
Biggest concern with this deck is the mana fixing. It's possible the mana makes it such that you can't merge Doom Foretold with incarnation (or at least not play Oath of Kaya). Elspeth's Nightmare is a decent Oath of Kaya replacement.
Prediction: 25% Tier 1
Deck #5 Mono U Devotion self mill
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661183#paper
4x Merfolk Secret Keeper
4x Thassa's Oracle
4x Wall of lost thoughts
4x Brazen Borrower
3x Gadwick
2x Thassa
3x Cavalier of Gales
4x Opt
4x Drowned Secrets
2x Ashiok, Nightmare render
1x Jace Wielder of mysteries
1x Quasiduplicate
Thassa's Oracle is an incredibly good magic card. On an empty board, it does a reasonably close Omenspeaker impression, a card that is close to constructed playable in a slow deck. It also wins by itself in the mid-late game!
The goal with this deck is to mill yourself and maximize devotion to make a Thassa's Oracle win the game.
There's some minor subsynergizes to work with Thassa (Cavalier of gales + Wall of Thoughts + Thassa's Oracle).
One potential weakness I see with this strategy is if your opponent is playing counter magic, they might make it tough for you to resolve Oracle/Jace at the end of the game. One cool thing is that, depending on the matchup, this strategy can pivot and win by milling the opponent instead!
The other option is to splash white for Teferri and Time Wipe. Teferi is VERY good in this deck. All the creatures have good ETB effects or adventure spells and it allows your end game to not be interacted with at instant speed.
Time wipe is good for buying time , triggers drowned secrets and also rebuys the ETB creatures.
You'd only want 1-2 copies, but the threat of a wrath changes gameplay a lot.
My gut tells me the white splash is worth it.
Prediction: 10% Tier 1
Deck #6 GB Cauldron
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661209#paper
1x Chainweb Aracnir
4x Glowspore Shaman
4x Mire Triton
4x Paradise Druid
1x The binding of the Titans
4x Tymaret Calls the Dead
2x Murderous Rider
1x Beanstalk Giant
1x Polukranos, Unchained
2x Acolyte of Affliction
3x Molderhulk
4x Cavalier of Thorns
2x End-Raze Forerunners
1x Izoni
2x Cauldron of eternity
On my twitter, I posted a version that was built upon self mill, Command the Dreadhorde and Gray Merchant of Asphodel, but the more I thought about it, End-raze Forerunners seems like a more powerful/consistent way of abusing the cauldron. A lot of your dinky creatures don't really do much on board, so finding a way to leverage them is important.
Cavalier of Thorns transitions perfectly to the end-raze forerunners end game, but playing that alongside grey merchant was too awkward for the curve. If you can stall the game enough to get 5 creatures in your GY + Cauldron + End Raze Forerunners, you can win the game with just 5 mana!
Mire Triton and Tymaret that calls the dead was the missing piece of this puzzle from the previous set that could make cauldron a competitive magic card!
My concern about this strategy is that there are a lot of "bad cards" that would leave the strategy vulnerable to thought erasure + GY hate, or counter magic.
Prediction : 5% tier 1
Deck #7 RW Fires
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661319#paper
3 Bonecrusher Giant
2 Thrill of Possibility
2 Justice Strike
4 Deafening Clarion
1 Idyllic Tutor
2 Banishing Light
4 Fires of Invention
3 Ash Pheonix
2 Haktos
3 Tectonic Giant
4 Cavalier of Flame
2 Kenrith, The Returned King
2 God-Eternal-Oketra
With the new set, it's clear that a very similar version to Jeskai Fires is possible without the blue! You miss some important cards (Sphinx of foresight and Castle Vantress are the biggest ones), but it's possble an improved mana base is worth it? You could justify a couple coloress utility lands now! Phoenix of Ash in particular is interesting. It works well with Fires of Invention, but not so much with Deafening Clarion. Haktos could range from anywhere from incredible to unplayable. Works very well with Deafening Clarion... 2/3 of the time :)
Idylic tutor can find a split of Banishing light of fires (or Purphoros!).. Not sure if that's worth it for 3 mana. Fires is such an important card, but 3 mana is sooooo much. I'm confident this deck will be very good, but I'm guessing it won't be better than Jeskai.. This build is an expose of the cards that work well in the strategy from the new set.
Prediction: 10% tier 1, 80% worse than Jeskai
Deck#8 Niv mizzet Ramp
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661343#paper
4x Gilded Goose
3x Paradise Druid
4x Growth Spiral
4x Dryad of Ilysian Grove
3x Teferi, Time reveler
4x Casualties of war
4x Niv Mizzet Reborn
2x Fires of Invention
3x Hydroid Krasis
2x Escape to the wilds
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661414#paper
3x Arboreal Grazer
4x Growth Spiral
4x Dryad of Ilysian Grove
2x Uro
3x Deafening Clarion
1x Solar Blaze
4x Fires of Invention
3x Niv Mizzet Reborn
1x Golos
4x Casualties of war
2x Hydroid Krasis
1x Escape to the wilds
The first version involves green creature ramp. The second is way greedier, utilizes sweepers and relies heavier on the fixing of Dryad and Fires.
While probably not good enough, I wanted to see if I can build a deck that merges the Dryad with Niv Nizzet. Casting Niv Mizzet consistently is a sexy idea, but the deck building concessions may be too much. These kind of decks are outside of my area of expertise, but maybe genius can break it. You better believe I'll be trying tinkering with this though!
Prediction: 1% tier 1 for mortals, 10% tier 1 if you are Japanese.
Deck # 9a BR sac
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661539#paper
4x Cauldron Familiar
4x Gutterbones
4x Priest of forgotten gods
1x Lazotep Reaver
4x Woe Strider
4x Mayhem Devil
1x Murderous Rider
2x Midnight Reaper
1x Rankle
1x Erebos
1x Bontu
4x Witch's Oven
3x The Akroan War
2x Claim The Firstborn
This was the decklist I first posted to twitter. Rb Sacrifice got some HUGE buffs and now have a variety of options, depending on the metagame. Akroan War and Woe Strider were likely the biggest upgrades. The sheer number of sac outlets in this deck is very impressive.. If strategies involve putting creatures onto the battlefield and don't have much removal for priest of forgotten gods/mayhem devil, they are going to get SHREDDEDED by this deck.
Prediction: 75% Tier 1 Deck
#9b BR fires
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661560#paper
4x Cauldron Familiar
1x Kroxa, Titan's of Death Hunger
2x Bonecrusher Giant
4x Mayhem Devil
2x Midnight Reaper
2x Woe Strider
3x The Akroan War
4x Fires of Invention
4x Cavalier of Flame
4x Bontu
4x Witch's Oven
The Bontu/ Cavalier of flame/ Akroan war interaction strikes me as very powerful. I wanted to lean a little heavier on it and see what the deck would look like if it went bigger. The list below is using John Rolf's MCVII as the base. Trying to maximize Bontu.
Tymaret calls the dead is somewhat interesting, as it fills the graveyard for Kroxa/Strider and puts lands in the graveyard for cavalier death trigger and gives food for bontu.
3 slot is super clogged so I have no whats better.
Early in the format I like a mix of the cards to get a feel for what plays out better.
I don't like the lack of early plays and the lack of comeback mechanics.
Prediction: 20% Tier 1
Deck #10 Grixis Kroxa
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2661592#paper
4x Thought Erasure
4x Kroxa, Titan's of Death Hunger
2x Agonizing Remorse
2x Tyrant's Scorn
2x Drown in the Loch
3x Discovery//Dispersal
4x Thief of sanity
2x Murderous Rider
1x Atris, Oracle of half truths
2x Ritual of soot
2x Eat to extinction
3x Nicol Bolas
2x Ashiok, Nightmare muse
1x Erebos' Intervention
As a recovering Grixis addict, I am excited about this deck. I think Kroxa is a busted magic card, but require some build around. When properly utilized Kroxa strikes me as a top 5 card and isn't getting nearly enough attention.
I played a LOT of Grixis back when we had better mana and 4 mana Nicol Bolas. From what I remember, Interactive cards + discovery//dispersal + discard, fills up your graveyard thoroughly. Kroxa + Remorse + thought erasure should shred hands, which should leave thief of sanity alive. This may be thief's come back party!
Nicol bolas has always been a busted card, but he wants the opponent to be low resources for the +1 to put a squeeze on the opponents mana base.. The extra discard could be what bolas needs.
Ashiok is a very powerful planeswalker that helps Grixis deal with permanent types they otherwise would struggle with.
I know for sure I'll be playing an unhealthy amount of this strategy, win or lose!
Prediction: 15% Tier 1 (mana base will hold it back)
Conclusion:
Beyond excited for Theros!! Tons of new powerful interactions and archetypes to be explored. Think there's a good a chance many of the decklists I posted in this article will be competitive with top tier decks! If you are going to play with any of the decklists in early tournaments or on stream, would love if you give me and my blog a shout out!
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